A Wall, you Say?

            I semi-recently came across a video on Facebook headlined; “Build the Wall: The Best Argument You’ll Ever Hear”.  This video was posted by an individual I had previously never heard of; Charlie Kirk. In the video Kirk makes what proponents for a wall at the southern border might call a compelling argument by throwing out “facts”.  At first glance it is compelling, until you begin digging into it. So, I decided to take a look at these “facts” and test their accuracy.

“An illegal alien in AZ is 2 times as likely to commit a crime as a natural born citizen.”

            Presumably, this statistic was taken by Kirk from a report often quoted by former Attorney General Jeff Sessions in early 2018. According to the Washington Times, the report was prepared by the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC) and utilized data centering on illegal immigrants (Dinan, 2018). The CPRC was founded by oft-cited Dr. John Lott. It is worth mentioning that the CPRC is typically aligned with conservative media outlets, however their website declares that it is listed as a non-profit organization and accepts no funding from groups such as the NRA (CPRC, n.d.). The analysis stood out from its predecessors due to its look at crimes committed by those in the country illegally, rather than crimes committed by those here legally. Sequentially, these results challenge previous studies that determined immigrants on the whole committed less crimes than typical citizens. If you are interested you may download the full report HERE.

            In response to the CPRC study, the Cato Institute reviewed the findings. The data used for the study was provided by the Arizona Department of Corrections (ADC). In contrast to the CPRC, it should be noted that the Cato Institute reports itself as a “public policy research organization — a think tank — dedicated to the principles of individual liberty” (Cato Institute, n.d.). They claim they are funded primarily through private non-governmental donors. Reviewer and author Alex Nowrasteh at the Cato Institute determined the numbers were skewed due to a misinterpretation of how the ADC defined citizenship, and the variables surrounding that definition (2018). According to Nowrasteh, he was given a secondary data set that mimicked the sample used by the CPRC (from 1985-2017), and deemed it unusable due to the inability to properly define and separate the citizenship variable (2018).  

RESULT: Unconfirmed

            The data the CPRC presented is questionable. However, even if it were accurate, one must ask themselves for an individual (immigrant or otherwise, legal or otherwise) that has no qualms about breaking laws and committing crimes, would illegally crossing, or otherwise bypassing a border wall be a deterrent for entry into the U.S.?

“90% of all fentanyl and heroin is transported across the southern border”

            This statement is a favorite of President Trump, and likely where Kirk discovered the stat. However, that doesn’t make it untrue.  In fact, most news outlets report this statement as accurate (Lopez, 2019; Vesoulis, Law, & Martinez, 2019).

RESULT: Confirmed

            Although it seems most illegal drugs are entering from the southern border at present the idea that a border wall will stop this is thought of as a stretch by most experts. Essentially, drug traffickers usually employ legal means of entry to transport drugs into the U.S. across the southern border. Some experts have gone on record stating that there are far better investments in combating the opioid / drug epidemic than a wall (Specht, 2019).

“10,000 kids are sex trafficked across the southern border each year.”

            Personally, I could not find any reporting that delivered this precise of a figure specifically for children being trafficked. Yet, before I go further let me provide some background on sex trafficking itself. Human trafficking for both sex and labor is more prevalent in the U.S. than most Americans believe. In fact, some authorities have argued that with its resources the U.S. could effectively end human trafficking. One such way to impact trafficking would be if our government made it a priority through fighting for increased criminal penalties for traffickers and more strict repercussions with non-compliant nations as identified by the Department of State’s Trafficking in Persons (TIP) report.

RESULT: Undisputed

            While I would not dismiss the statistic used here by Kirk, I would offer that IF a wall were employed in combating sex trafficking into the U.S., and IF it were successful it does nothing for the enslaved victims on either side of the border, other than guarantee they are shipped somewhere other than the U.S. or Mexico.

“56,000 illegal immigrants are in our federal prison system”

                This is another factoid that fluctuates depending on the time of citation and the source. Some outlets have the DOJ reporting this figure as 57k, or roughly 26% of federal prisoners being illegal aliens (Center for Immigration Studies, 2019).

RESULT: Undisputed

                This figure seems to accurately capture the number of incarcerated illegal immigrants in our federal system. Kirk also goes onto mention that there are more uncounted immigrants within our state’s prison system as well, and there is no reason to deny this claim as inaccurate.

“$135 billion spent on illegal immigrants by American taxpayers”

            Illegal immigrants being housed by our justice system are just one aspect of federal spending that taxpayers are on the hook for to combat illegal entry into the U.S.  Unfortunately, this figure also proved compromised when the report it was based upon was critiqued heavily for glaring flaws, such as overestimating the number of illegal immigrants (Athey, 2018). A figure that by nature is near-impossible to accurately measure.

RESULT: Unconfirmed

            While you can dispute the dollar amount spent by taxpayers on illegal immigrants, you cannot dispute that there is, in fact an amount. Meaning, we as taxpayers are spending something on these individuals.

            However, from a cost perspective this discussion becomes moot when you realize that the cost of a border wall has been estimated at anywhere from $8 billion to $70 billion to build, with a fair estimate being gauged at around $25 billion, plus $750 million a year in maintenance (Vittert).

            If accurate, this means as a country we would recoup roughly $109 billion the first year following the wall’s completion. Following that, taxpayers would save a little over $134 billion annually, assuming that the wall was effective in completely ceasing illegal immigration, and related tax burdens, which as we’ve established, is unlikely.

“Fairness- It’s not fair…” (To other immigrants outside Mexico)

                To be fair, I did not endeavor to do a great deal of research on this statement as it is not quantifiable. Building a physical barrier to any border does nothing to guarantee equitable treatment of immigrants entering the country either legally or illegally.  

RESULT: Unconfirmed

            This line of speechifying highlights what is inherently wrong with having a discussion about a border wall in the first place: If what we really want to achieve is fairness for those wishing to become full-fledged citizens (or legally work here) then we should be discussing citizenship / immigration reform and efficiency. Vetting, and authenticating the will of an outsider is a part of that, but thinking that a wall will mete out some measure of fairness in any of this is absurd.

“Sovereignty- Our culture is much different than Mexico…”

            As this not quite two and a half minute video rolls, both the statistics and any trace of logic that are rolled out with them begin to break down (as is evidenced by the fact that they become less quantifiable, as with our prior example).

            In that vein, at around the two minute mark Kirk begins a diatribe about American culture versus Mexican culture claiming; “Our culture is much different and has outpaced them over the last 50 years.” Culture is not a competition. At its core, culture is based upon advancements in a particular area(s) that a society collectively values. These could be technological, economical, or conditional. It could also be community, quality of life or religion. It could also be any number of other areas of measure, again unquantifiable.

RESULT: Unconfirmed

            While you cannot argue that the United States has outpaced Mexico in terms of economic or technological growth, you cannot declare we have a greater sense of community or national pride than does Mexico. In fact, in the last two and a half years one could successfully argue that among 1^st world countries all things considered the U.S. is lacking in cultural depth due to our typically individualistic nature (DeAngelis, 2007).

FINAL CONCLUSION:

            Before I wrap up, I think it significant to add, I have nothing against Charlie Kirk, up until the 21st of January I had no idea who he was. Nor am I a geopolitical expert or a Facebook personality with any amount of measurable clout. I am is just a guy who can use Google. I am also against is rhetoric peppered with enough fact and scare tactics that it becomes palatable as fact, without actually being factual. This type of oratory pushes an agenda that offers no real solution.  

            Further, it can often be hard to wade through this rhetoric and dig deeper into a statistic, its source or a person’s agenda. The border wall, immigration and trafficking concerns are all issues that cannot be easily understood by a singular report or research group, regardless of their political affiliation, or lack thereof.  Moreover, the ways in which these reports are used are disingenuous, and often riddled with omissions, further supplanted by half-truths to prop up the agenda of one interest or another.

            At the end of the day the idea of a border wall as this magical cure-all for all of the ills outlined here is pure fantasy. However, after conducting some due diligence it is this author’s opinion that a border wall would guarantee two things:

1) More polarizing, divisive attitudes that our politicians on both sides can exploit for their own gain.

2) Ensure that traffickers (of people and substances) advance and alter their methods of transport to foil the very purpose of the wall.

Is there a problem with drugs and illegal immigrants entering the country at the southern border? YES

Will a border wall stop this phenomenon? NO

References

Athey, P. (2018, June 26). Does illegal immigration cost the United States more than $100 billion a year? Retrieved February 10, 2019, from AZ Central: https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/fact-check/2018/06/26/paul-gosar-how-much-do-undocumented-immigrants-cost-economy/691997002/

Cato Institute. (n.d.). About Cato. Retrieved February 10, 2019, from Cato Institute: https://www.cato.org/about

Center for Immigration Studies. (2019, February 7). Immigration Data Portal. Retrieved February 10, 2019, from Center for Immigration Studies: https://cis.org/Immigration-Statistics-Data-Portal

CPRC. (n.d.). About Us. Retrieved February 10, 2019, from Crime Prevention Research Center: https://crimeresearch.org/about-us/

DeAngelis, T. (2007, April). America: A toxic lifestyle? Retrieved February 10, 2019, from American Pyschological Association: https://www.apa.org/monitor/apr07/america

Dinan, S. (2018, January 26). Washington Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019, from Illegals commit crimes at double the rate of native-born: Study: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/jan/26/illegals-commit-crimes-double-rate-native-born-stu/

Lopez, G. (2019, January 8). Trump’s wall won’t do anything about the opioid epidemic. Retrieved February 10, 2019, from Vox: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/1/8/18174768/trump-wall-opioid-epidemic-heroin

Nowrasteh, A. (2018, February 5). The Fatal Flaw in John R. Lott Jr.’s Study on Illegal Immigrant Crime in Arizona. Retrieved February 10, 2019, from Cato Institute: https://www.cato.org/blog/fatal-flaw-john-r-lott-jrs-study-illegal-immigrant-crime-arizona

Specht, P. (2019, February 2). Would a border wall have prevented the opioid epidemic? Retrieved February 10, 2019, from Politifact: https://www.politifact.com/north-carolina/statements/2018/feb/02/ann-coulter/would-wall-have-prevented-opioid-epidemic/

U.S. Department of State. (2018, June). Trafficking in Persons Report. Retrieved February 10, 2019, from U.S. Department of State: https://www.state.gov/documents/organization/258876.pdf

Vesoulis, A., Law, T., & Martinez, G. (2019, January 8). Here Are the Facts Behind President Trump's Border Claims. Retrieved February 10, 2019, from Time: http://time.com/5497260/donald-trump-border-wall-fact-check/

Vittert, L. (n.d.). Trump's border wall -- how much it will actually cost according to a statistician. Retrieved February 10, 2019, from Fox News: https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trumps-border-wall-how-much-it-will-actually-cost-according-to-a-statistician

#hithole

                First off, I’d like to start this post with a disclaimer:

                I typically do not get much into politics, which you could argue runs against my ideals as a social worker. However, before you judge, hear me out. Contemporary politics are more about party and profiteering, less about people, and certainly not about progress. This has been the case for years.

                Thus, my position as an American citizen is that if you are waiting for a politician (Republican, Democrat, whatever) or government entity to help you, then you are going to be sorely disappointed.  In the same vein, the social worker in me says that the best positioned person to help you is, well you. The tools of resiliency and empowerment go a long way towards bettering yourself.

                Sincerely,

                David I WriteStuff

                We now return you to your not-so-regularly scheduled rant…

*             *             *

                There has been a great deal of media attention given to President Trump and his [alleged] use of vulgarity and racially charged comments. As such, I felt obliged to weigh in on the current kerfuffle involving these [alleged] comments regarding certain lesser-developed countries during a meeting about DACA. Particularly, the President is stated to have remarked that certain countries, Haiti among them, were nothing but “shithole” countries. He [allegedly] went on to even question the very notion of why we would even consider letting in immigrants from these countries to the United States.

                There are three points I’d like to address about this:

                1) I have no doubt that Trump uttered these words       

                To begin, I have no doubt that President Trump would refer to any number of lesser-developed nations by the term “shithole”. He has demonstrated that his character and vocabulary are oafish and limited. Further, I can only hypothesis that he is the latest in a long line of government officials- perhaps even presidents- that have uttered similar sentiments in service to this country. To take things even a step further, I would argue that the majority of the American public likely holds these countries in the same dim view.

                That doesn’t make remarks like this okay, nor does it give Trump a pass. That makes these thoughts a bias inherent to a majority of Americans. This also means through education, and oh gee, I don’t know maybe meeting someone from Haiti, these myths can be dispelled.

                2) Circle of Trust

                Building on what I’ve said above, I believe that most everyone has said something in the heat of the moment that was perhaps off-color or inappropriate. Usually, the smart ones among us do so in a circle of close friends, family, or business acquaintances that we trust.

                What I mean is usually, when these things slip out, we apologize, and/or those around us know our character well enough to know that one statement does not, nor could not define us.

                Unfortunately, for the President he made the mistake of spewing whatever comments he made in front of those with which he had no rapport (It was in fact, a bi-partisan DACA meeting). That coupled with the fact that Trump has already had a questionable history when it comes to shall we say, “less-than-acceptable” (or accurate) statements. These things together create an environment where several around him are poised to react defensively.

                This leads us to a point where you now have Democrats and Republicans who attended the meeting bickering over what was said versus not said. This is equally as shameful as uttering the words themselves.

                3) Deny, deny, deny

                What disappoints me the most is the fact that as President, Trump seems incapable of admitting fault. This marks only the latest scenario in which he denies what he said, and tries to rewrite history, in spite of other people clearly being present.

                I learned early on in my business career that if you make a mistake, own up to it. It is only then that you can begin to correct the mistake. Not to mention, these two things are essential in improving your integrity, and reputation.

                Some detractors may ask, “But David, how do you know he said these horrible things? And if he didn’t why should he fess up to something he didn’t even do?”

                Elementary my dear readers; Trump denies (or attempts to outmaneuver) anything that flies back into his face as overly controversial in order to save face. In fact, he has a heaping track record of doing so, well before he took office. In fact, if it weren’t for denials, backpedaling and distraction that Twitter account of his would be nearly dormant.

               

                To close, I feel that President Trump would be truly amazed at how fast this “news story” would go away if he would just admit any wrongdoing and actually attempt to do so some follow-up in the name of self-improvement.  However, I won’t be holding my breath while waiting for him to do so.

               

The Less Ordinary Life of Harold: Make America Poop Again

The oval office is crowded- filled to the brim with white men in suits, most of whom are glancing at Harold with drawn, dire expressions. They seem to regard him as an anomaly, a political stunt, or even a distraction like so many tweets meant to divert a nation’s attention from reality.

In a few minutes of adult-time, but a lifetime in kid-time, the President, and Harold’s new boss, enters the room. Harold watches from his own huge leather chair as all the other men stand to greet him. Some step forward and shake hands or pat him on the back.

Harold notices that through each interaction, none of the other men mentioned the negative things they’d been conversing about regarding the President before he entered the room.

President Trump takes his seat at the head of the table. Harold sees that unquestionably he is in charge as he has a huge chair, the biggest chair in the room, bigger than anyone’s.

“Thank you all for coming here,” the President begins in a serious tone. “As you all know the biased media, with their fake news about this administration’s collusion with Russia- I mean alleged and totally false and sad - did I mention sad? - collusion with Russia have caused my approval rating to plummet.”

The men around the room nod heartily.

“So it’s with that concern in mind that I have sought out a new image consultant. He comes highly recommended, he is truly the best, and believe me I know all the best image consultants. With his youth, intellect and unique skill set, he is going to help us truly make America great again. Everyone, please welcome Harold. ”   

Harold sees them, the way they stare at him as he stands to speak, with their darting, snake-like eyes. He can tell they consider him to be different and thus not worthy of their respect or even idle consideration. Harold began to think, to slowly realize, he was everything they were not: young, poor, respectful of others, and unafraid. Although he could see they were most certainly afraid, Harold wasn’t quite sure what men of their stature would fear.

“Thank you President Trump. Thank you all, let me get started by throwing out some numbers; 4.7 million, 28%, ½.”

The old men before him stared back with raised eyebrows and looks that told even the casual observer they were lost.

“Mr. Trump, if I could speak freely sir?”

The President nodded to Harold.

“With all due respect sir- Mr. President, I’m a kid and even I can see that politicians-along with most people- are full of shit.”

Gasps rang out from all over the room.

Harold flushed a bit, but continued his speech, “America’s full of it sir.”

Now groans came from the crowd, though President Trump still listened at full attention.  “It’s full of greatness already. The problem isn’t that we lack greatness, it’s the fact that we are constipated with greatness sir, we don’t know how to get it out.”

Some of the men around the room began whispering to those next to them.

“So you see sir, as your new image consultant, my recommendation isn’t to rework your image from the ground up. We only need to change one word.”

Harold holds up a finger as he removes a small remote from his pocket. Pressing the button a large banner unfurls from behind the President’s seat.

Harold keys in on the President to see his reaction.

A true moment passes, then a single, shimmering tear rolls down his cheek, and Mr. Trump stands and begins clapping with fervor.

5 Points (or The Citizens and the Case of the Curious POTUS)

Well, where do I begin?

First off, we have a new president-elect, in case you didn’t hear. With that, full disclosure: I was a “lesser of two evils” voter. I chose to vote for the devil I know, rather than the devil I don’t. I realize that’s not saying much. I don’t feel the need to defend myself for that, because as I have said before I am a realist, and I feel we weren’t given much in the way of options to begin with.

Second, with regard to Trump’s nonexistent track record, I just sit here truly hoping that he doesn’t prove inept in his ability to run a country. I’ll hope for the best on that point.

Third, I feel that we as a country do this same dance every four-to eight years where we’ve grown fickle with the “establishment” and therefore feel the need to vote in the opposite party. Not realizing that the new boss is the same as the old.

Fourth, the amount of venom from both sides post-election is shameful. I continue to struggle with how anyone can get so caught up in being part of this mob mentality that we have labeled as “republican” and “democrat”. I will continue to assert that we need more options, and we need to get away from pretending that either of these parties is interested in changing anything that will take away their power, prestige or position.

Fifth (and perhaps most important), we all love drama right? It’s human nature. And realistically speaking Trump being elected and having people claim Armageddon is exactly that drama. Truth be told, the world will continue to turn, we will continue to be who we are. Even those of us that are part of groups that are at risk for marginalization and discrimination, will continue to do what we always do; rise above.

There's Always a Choice

I’ll start with a bit of a disclaimer: I am no expert on politics. That won’t shock any of you that know me personally as you’ve probably often wondered if I am even aware of the fact that it’s an election year.            Oh, but I am, those tacky signs pinned on every street corner, in every city- they’re a dead giveaway! By the way, I’ll mention that the street corners are appropriate places for those wastes of paper and space.             

                That being said, I have a few things I need to get off my chest, and I’ll try to be as honest (or as “un-politician-like”) as I can as I go through these items.

The Lesser of Two Evils

                First off, we as a country are facing two absolutely abysmal choices for “candidates” from the Republican and Democratic parties this year. On one hand we have a self-serving, greedy, bigot, and on the other we have a self-serving, lying, sellout. It makes you think that we have hardly any choice at all. It makes me sick to my stomach to think that either one could be president.

We Need a Change        

                I’ll admit I was going to vote for Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary, but unfortunately due to a state law saying I needed to be registered with that party 30 days prior in order to do so, I was barred. That being said, I am a realist, and I didn’t mourn over the fact that he lost the democratic nomination to Mrs. Clinton. At this stage I will neither cry over it, nor entertain inter-party conspiracy theories (although it does make one wonder).

                I say all that, to say this; we need political reform. The delegate/super-delegate system, Electoral College, corporate donations, lack of term limits, and other archaic practices are only in place so that each party doesn’t lose more control than is acceptable at any given time.

                They’ve conditioned you to cheer for your chosen political party like it’s a Super Bowl matchup for the ages. People are more concerned about what side wins or loses than who actually gets anything done once they get elected. Personally, it’s not a matter of popularity, looks or celebrity endorsements with me- I want results!

Agree to Disagree?

                Which brings me to my next point: the donkeys and elephants despise each other, that’s been clear to me since I was a child. Get two guys or gals together; different religion, different backgrounds different education…9 times out of 10 they are usually fine until someone brings up politics. However, we should hold our elected officials to a higher standard. You don’t have to agree on every issue in order to make progress. I was a project manager at a huge corporation for a decade- guess what? I often had to work with colleagues that I didn’t agree with (gasp), even on occasion, those I didn’t like!

                I couldn’t stymie or filibuster them into oblivion because at the end of the day my boss wanted results. If I didn’t have them? Then I imagine my walking papers would’ve been promptly drawn up.

                If you can’t agree on how to solve for a particular issue, at least you can agree it’s a problem facing the nation. My suggestions to our legislators from across the aisles would be to start there. Work together, your ideologies may differ but you can at least agree on a starting point. Be professional, and do the job you were elected to do, rather than the bidding you pledged to your political party.

*All rights to The New Yorker magazine where applicable

Thinking it Over

                Now I’ve come to a point where I am certain that I will not be voting for Clinton or Trump come Election Day. Do I just sit at home and drink a beer, eat a few handfuls of Doritos and hope for the best? I don’t think I can manage that. In fact, I’m not sure if I could live with myself over that type of inaction in the face of such mounting peril. The question becomes who then?

                My answer; at this point I don’t know. I am currently looking at the Johnson & Weld ticket, and doing some research to see where they are at on issues. While still politicians, I feel that they may be more results-focused, rather than special interest-focused than our other choices at this stage. This isn’t an endorsement, as I am still currently vetting them as an option. But I know what you’re going to say to that; “A vote for anyone outside of the two major parties is a wasted vote” – if you truly think that, reread what I wrote above about being conditioned- and then reconsider why you think that.*

                See you at the polls…God help us all.

-          David  

UPDATE
                So I thought it an idea (maybe not a "good" one, but an idea nonetheless) to add an update as we have gotten much closer to election day, and so much has happened since I initially wrote and posted the original blog.
                I felt compelled to address what seems to me to be the main arguments between both democrats and republicans regarding the other party's candidate, and they are: integrity and capability.
                I'll begin with integrity. Let's be honest, both major candidates are less than truthful. Clinton's main detractors point to her mismanagement of classified emails and her utilization of an alleged pay-to-play strategy in regards to her dealings with persons of power and their involvement with the Clinton Foundation, and Benghazi. Those who oppose Trump cry foul regarding his shady business dealings, disparaging remarks about...well pretty much everyone except wealthy white men, grabbing *ahem* things that don't belong to him, and lack of releasing tax returns. Neither candidate is ideal, neither candidate inspire much hope when viewed through a realistic lense.
                Which brings me to my next point around capability. If I am objectively reviewing both candidates behavior and record and see reasons to distrust both, where does that leave me?
                Well to be frank it leaves me with a poor choice. However, with that being said if I am already willing to accept that both candidates lie, or are at least less than truthful on a regular basis, it has to come down to who can get the job done, right? Given Trump's panache for child-like tirades, gross misstatement (or perhaps misunderstanding?) of statistics, and lack of culpability for his own actions / statements, I cannot in good conscious cast a vote for a man who's only possible strength is that he hasn't abused power in a political setting...yet.
                To expand, claiming Trump is anti-establishment and shakes up both the republicans and democrats because he is an outsider with no interest in party pandering or favors might be accurate, but it has become quite clear that Trump is only out for Trump, and if elected I foresee the man taking office and using the country itself to further his business dealings and nothing more. Moreover, I believe that Clinton can and will do what she can to help the disenfranchised in this country, even if she herself profits while doing so.
                 To wrap up, I've already cast my vote via early ballot, and I'll let you use the above diatribe to determine who it went toward. But know this: I can only say I voted for the lesser of 2 (more accurately 4) evils and that realization doesn't make me feel proud this election year.

May God have mercy on our souls.
- David
10/21/16

*I'll add that after researching both the Johnson/ Weld and Stein/ Ajamu policy and platforms I found them both to be at best lacking substance, and at worst ignorant on government structure, operations and processes. But I wanted so badly for them to be robust, and well laid out. Really and truly, I did.